How to Calculate Poker Odds
Calculating your poker odds is not as bad as it sounds. In fact, it’s probably way easier than you think it is. I was never any good at math yet I still excel at poker and can count my odds in a split second at the poker table. Believe me, that means a lot because I am as anti-math as it gets.
Before I stumbled across the answer, I did hours of research on the topic and found all kinds of articles that offered ridiculous equations and long division. I knew there was no way real poker players used that garbage at the tables. There had to be an easier way. I soon found out there was.
The Simple Method
The simplest way to calculate your poker odds is to compare your drawing odds to your pot odds. Most of the equations you see on the internet are formulas for calculating your drawing odds but there’s an easier way: memorize the odds of some of the most common drawing situations.
For example:
• The odds against a flush draw hitting are about 2:1 with two cards to come and 4:1 with one card to come
• The odds against a straight draw are about 2:1 and 5:1
• The odds against a gutshot straight draw are about 5:1 and 10:1
• The odds of a 2-pair turning into a full house are the same at 5:1 and 10:1
• The odds against a set turning into a full house are about 2.5:1 and 5.5:1
That’s all you need to know. If you want to know the math behind those odds, there are plenty of other poker websites with that information. What we’re worried about here is finding the most effective way to figure your odds in real world situations. You can memorize more drawing hands as you go.
Calculating Your Pot Odds
Now that we have your drawing odds all figured out, the next part is to figure out your pot odds. Luckily, this part is just as easy. All you have to do is be able to reduce simple fractions. The pot odds are a comparison of the size of a bet you must call to the size of the pot.
For example, if someone bets $10 into a $10 pot, the pot is now $20 and you have to call $10. Your pot odds could then be read as 20:10. That reduces down to 2:1.
Another example: If someone bets $100 into a $200 pot, the pot is now $300 and you have to call $100. The pot odds are 300:100 or 3:1.
See? Now you know how to calculate both your pot odds and your drawing odds. Now all we have to do is compare our drawing odds to our pot odds.
Compare Your Drawing Odds to Your Pot Odds
To determine if a draw is worth chasing, all you have to do is find out if your pot odds are larger than your drawing odds or smaller than your drawing odds. If your pot odds are larger, you can profitably call that bet with your draw. Otherwise you should fold.
For example:
Let’s say you are sitting on the turn with a flush draw in a $300 pot. Your opponent bets $50. Can you call this bet with your flush draw? Here’s how we find out:
1. Recall your drawing odds: A flush draw with one card to come is 5:1 against.
2. Calculate your pot odds: The pot is now $350 and you have to call $50. That reduces down to 7:1.
3. Compare your drawing odds to your pot odds: Your pot odds are 7:1 and your drawing odds are 5:1. Your pot odds are bigger than you drawing odds so you can profitably call this bet.
One Last Thing
It’s up to you to decide when to use the one-card-to-come odds and the two-card-to-come odds. Just because you’re on the flop, it doesn’t mean you get to see two more cards for that one bet.
If you suspect your opponent is going to bet both the flop and the turn, you should use your one-card odds on each street. The only time you should use your two-card odds on the flop is when you know your opponent will not bet again on the turn (your opponent is all-in, for example).
